stjorthotic Chapter 772: Dynamically Changing Land Population Carrying Capacity [Please Subscribe, Please Subscr
Chapter 772: Dynamically Changing Land Population Carrying Capacity [Please Subscribe, Please Subscr
“400 million to 500 million people?!”
"The current maximum real population that these acres of land in the Ming Dynasty can support and support is 400 to 500 million people?!!"
"With more than 500 million people, most of them will starve?!!"
"With more than 600 million people, there will be turmoil and fighting?!"
Zhu Yuanzhang frowned and jumped out sentence by sentence.
At present, the maximum real population that these acres of land in the Ming Dynasty can support and support is 400 to 500 million people. Is this a large number?!!
many!
a lot of!!
Absolutely a lot!!!
You know, the population of the people at the peak of the Song Dynasty in the past had just exceeded 100 million.
If the population of the Ming Dynasty could increase to 400 million to 500 million people, then the Song Dynasty would really be hanged and beaten!
Not only the Song Dynasty, but also the population of any previous dynasty was inferior to that of the Ming Dynasty.
By then, the Ming Dynasty, with a population of 400 to 500 million people, will definitely become a new peak in the history of a unified dynasty.
Therefore, if he only knew this news, Zhu Yuanzhang would definitely feel very happy.
After all, the Ming Dynasty he created will surpass the prosperous ages of Han, Tang, and Song Dynasties in the future!
Such achievements are enough to put him on par with the Qin Emperor Han Wu Tang Sect, and it is not impossible to even surpass the Qin Emperor Han Wu Tang Sect.
However, he has not forgotten that Yan Changqing once told him that in the next twenty years, after the abolition of the capitation tax, the implementation of policies such as dividing the land into acres, and the promotion of high-yielding grains such as potatoes and sweet potatoes, in the next twenty years, the Ming Dynasty will The population of the people will inevitably exceed 300 million.
You know, the maximum real population that these acres of land in the Ming Dynasty can support and support today is 400 to 500 million people!
If this takes another twenty years, that is to say, after forty years, wouldn’t the population of Ming Dynasty increase to 400 to 500 million people, the upper limit of the land’s population carrying capacity?!
In another twenty years, that is, sixty years later, the population of the Ming Dynasty will most likely exceed 500 million, or even reach 600 million!
Similarly, Yan Changqing just said that the current upper limit of the land population of the Ming Dynasty is 400 to 500 million people. Once it exceeds 500 million people, most of the people will start to starve.
With more than 600 million people, the people of the Ming Dynasty will begin to fight in turmoil due to the uneven distribution of social resources.
In other words, in fifty-seventeen years, the Ming Dynasty will reach the peak of its prosperity.
Sixty years later, the Ming Dynasty will be unable to support its 500-600 million people, resulting in turmoil and fighting, which will eventually lead to the decline of the Ming Dynasty!
Fifty years, sixty years, is this a long time?!!
No, it's not long.
He should not be able to see the Ming Dynasty fifty or sixty years later.
All his sons are almost gone.
But his grandson, that is, people of Zhu Xiongying's generation, if they don't die young and are in good health, it is very likely that they will be able to see it.
In other words, in the future, the Ming Dynasty will reach the peak of its prosperity in the hands of the third generation of emperors, and then it will begin to decline in the hands of the fourth generation of emperors.
The third generation of the Great Tomorrow and the fourth generation of the Great Tomorrow are only two or three generations apart from him. This is such a short time distance.
"Could it be that after three generations of prosperity, the Ming Dynasty will begin to decline?!!"
Zhu Yuanzhang said what he had just said in his heart, and then looked at Yan Changqing and asked.
Yan Changqing nodded first, then shook his head and said:
"If the Ming Dynasty only had these acres of cultivated land, then your Majesty's calculation is probably correct.
“But in addition to the current acres of cultivated land in the Ming Dynasty, there are also the Liaodong Great Plains that are being developed, and the Northern Xinjiang Prairie that is being planned.
"If the Liaodong Great Plain is developed, it will be enough to support another 100 to 200 million people."
"Similarly, if the northern Xinjiang prairie is truly in the hands of the Ming Dynasty and further developed, it can also support a population of 100 to 200 million people."
"In fifty years' time, it is hard to say whether the northern Xinjiang prairie can be truly controlled by the Ming Dynasty and further developed."
"However, in fifty years, as long as the Ming Dynasty continues to invest resources and develop the Liaodong Great Plains, it will definitely be able to develop the Liaodong Great Plains."
“By then, with the Liaodong Great Plain in hand, the upper limit of the land’s population carrying capacity will be further raised to 500 to 600 million people.
"With the buffer time of 100 to 200 million people brought by the Liaodong Great Plain, as long as the Ming Dynasty can completely control the northern Xinjiang prairie in the next twenty years, and complete further development."
"Then the upper limit of Ming's land population carrying capacity will be further raised to 600 to 700 million people!"
"And the land population carrying capacity of one to two hundred million people brought by the northern Xinjiang prairie is enough to give the Ming Dynasty another twenty years of buffer time!"
"In other words, when the Ming Dynasty is a hundred years old, the population of the Ming Dynasty will reach the upper limit of the land's population carrying capacity, which is 600 to 700 million people!"
"However, this is only the one-way increase rate of the population of the Ming Dynasty. We also need to consider the rate of decrease of the population of the Ming Dynasty.
"To put it bluntly, it is the number of people who died in the past hundred years."
"One hundred years is enough to kill two to three generations of people."
"In other words, the population that was originally increased to 600 to 700 million people will die between 200 million and 300 million people in this hundred years!"
"In other words, the number of people who truly existed stably in the 100 years since the founding of the Ming Dynasty was actually about 400 to 500 million people, or around 300 to 400 million people."
"And this population of common people "has not yet reached the upper limit of the land population carrying capacity of the Ming Dynasty, which controlled and developed the Liaodong Great Plain and the Northern Xinjiang Prairie."
"According to the cycle of increase and decrease in the population, the Ming Dynasty should finally reach the upper limit of the land's population carrying capacity of 600 to 700 million people between 140 and 160 years after the founding of the People's Republic of China!"
"And based on the calculation of one generation in twenty years, as long as the next seven generations of the Ming Dynasty do not commit suicide, the Ming Dynasty will always be in a prosperous stage where the population of the people can continue to increase."
"It was not until the eighth emperor of the Ming Dynasty, one hundred and forty years after the founding of the Ming Dynasty, that the population began to exceed the upper limit of the land carrying capacity of the Ming Dynasty, which in turn led to uneven distribution of social production resources, leading to various social conflicts and A tumultuous situation.”
"But this is a conservative estimate. If it is an optimistic estimate, I estimate that the Ming Dynasty will start to touch the upper limit of the land's population carrying capacity only after the tenth generation of emperors, that is, two hundred years after the founding of the Ming Dynasty!"
After listening to Yan Changqing's analysis, both Zhu Yuanzhang and the princes Zhu Biao, Zhu Xi, Zhu Fan, Zhu Di and other princes breathed a sigh of relief.
Just now they really almost thought that the Ming Dynasty would be in the hands of the fourth generation of emperors, but they began to fall into a state where the population exceeded the upper limit of the land's population carrying capacity, and thus began to turn from prosperity to decline, and entered a downhill stage.
They had even just been thinking about how to solve the problem that the population of Ming Dynasty exceeded the population carrying capacity of the land.
For example, will it be necessary to reinstate the Dingyin tax to limit the rapid growth of the population?
But then Prince Zhu Biao noticed Yan Changqing’s last words, looked at Yan Changqing with a puzzled expression and asked:
"Optimistic estimate?!!"
“I don’t know where the ‘optimistic estimate’ mentioned by Mr. comes from?!!”
We must know that conservative estimates indicate that the Ming Dynasty began to touch the upper limit of the population carrying capacity of the Ming Dynasty one hundred and forty years later.
Optimistic estimates suggest that it would take two hundred years for the Ming Dynasty to reach the upper limit of its land population carrying capacity!
There is a huge difference between the two!!!
Prince Zhu Biao wanted to know the basis for this optimistic estimate.
Hearing what Zhu Biao said, Zhu Yuanzhang and the other princes also came back to their senses and looked at Yan Changqing with the same curiosity.
Yan Changqing turned his head and wrote "Dynamic changes in land population carrying capacity" on the blackboard behind him, and then said:
"First of all, one thing we need to know is that the land population carrying capacity is not a fixed value. It is subject to the comprehensive influence of many factors.
"One of the factors that has the greatest impact on the land's population carrying capacity is the number of acres of land, which fundamentally determines the level of the land's population carrying capacity."
"The number of acres of land is often related to the territory of the country."
"Because the larger your territory is, the more land you can reclaim into acres for farming, and the number of people you can ultimately support will further increase."
"For example, the land area of the Qin Dynasty was about 340 million hectares (3.4 million square kilometers). The upper limit of the land population carrying capacity of the Qin Dynasty at that time was about 20 million people, and the limit was 30 million people. about."
"After that, the land area of the Western Han Dynasty was about 609 million hectares (6.09 million square kilometers). Compared with the Qin Dynasty, the land area almost tripled."
"Therefore, the upper limit of the land's population carrying capacity in the Western Han Dynasty was about 50 million people, and the limit was about 60 million people."
"For another example, during the Longshuo period of Emperor Gaozong of the Tang Dynasty, the land area was about 1.237 million hectares (12.37 million square kilometers). Compared with the Western Han Dynasty,
The territory of the king of the Tang Dynasty also almost tripled.
"Excluding those enclaves that the Tang Dynasty only occupied in name but not in fact, the upper limit of the population carrying capacity of the land during the Tianbao period of the Tang Dynasty was about 80 million people.
The limit is about 90 million people. "
"This is the increase in the land's population carrying capacity due to its vast territory."
Having said this, Yan Changqing paused and wrote the six characters "territory and territory area" under "dynamically changing land population carrying capacity", and then continued:
"In addition to the impact of acres of land on the land's population carrying capacity, the advancement of production tools, the extensive construction of water conservancy, the improvement of production technology and the accumulation of experience also have an important impact on the land's population carrying capacity."
“During the Xia, Shang and Zhou dynasties, most of the farm tools used were made of wood, stone, bone, and clams, with only a very small amount of bronze tools.
"In the Spring and Autumn Period, iron farm tools began to appear."
"During the Warring States Period, the scope of use of iron farm tools expanded. The arrival of the Iron Age marked a significant increase in social productivity."
"Cao Wei Majun created advanced irrigation tools such as turners, water mills, and water mills, which were widely used in grain processing."
"The Tang Dynasty created the irrigation tool barrel cart, the curved shaft plow and so on."
"The advancement of these production tools has brought about the continuous improvement of people's farming efficiency!"
“As people’s farming efficiency continues to improve, it will naturally lead to an increase in food production!’
"With the increase in grain production, there will naturally be more grain to support a larger population!"
“This is the improvement in the land’s population carrying capacity brought about by the advancement of production tools.
Yan Changqing once again wrote about "Progress in Production Tools" in "Land and Territory Area".
"Similarly, during the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period, Chu Prime Minister Sun Shu'ao built Shaopi, Qin Shu Governor Li Bing built Dujiangyan, and Hydraulic Engineer Zheng Guo built Zheng Guo Canal."'
"The Ling Canal was built in the Qin Dynasty and connected the Xiang River and Li River."
“During the Sui Dynasty, the Yongji Canal, Tongji Canal, Hangou and Jiangnan River were opened, connecting them to form the Grand Canal that connects the north and south.
“The Tang Dynasty set up full-time officials to manage water conservancy projects, and the number of water conservancy projects built in Jiangnan alone exceeded that of the six dynasties combined.
"The Yuan Dynasty government built and dug the Huitong River and Tonghui River successively, connecting several major water systems."
"The construction of these water conservancy projects has greatly facilitated the irrigation of farmland and reduced flood disasters, which in turn will further increase grain production."
"With the increase in grain production, there will naturally be more grain to support a larger population!"
"This is the increase in the population carrying capacity of the fields brought about by the construction of water conservancy projects.'
Yan Changqing also wrote "Extensive construction of water conservancy" next to "Advancement of Production Tools" 947.
"In addition, from the "Shu Shu" in the Western Han Dynasty, to "Qi Min Yao Shu" in the Northern Wei Dynasty, and finally to "Nong Sang Ji Yao" and "Wang Zhen Nong Shu" in the Yuan Dynasty, we can
In order to clearly see the improvement of production technology and the accumulation of experience in the past. "I
"If we don't use the advanced farming methods recorded from generation to generation in "The Book of Si Sheng", "Collected Essentials of Nongsang" and "Wang Zhen Nongshu", but instead use the drunken farming methods of the Spring and Autumn Period and the Warring States Period, then I'm afraid Our current food production will be reduced by more than half.”
"Through the advanced production technology and accumulated rich experience recorded in these "Agricultural Books", there is no doubt that it can guide us to conduct better farming, thereby further increasing food production.
"With the increase in grain production, there will naturally be more grain to support a larger population!
"This is the improvement in production technology and accumulation of experience, which will lead to an increase in the land's population carrying capacity.'"
Yan Changqing then wrote "Production technology improvement and experience accumulation" next to "Extensive construction of water conservancy".
"In addition to the advancement of production tools, the extensive construction of water conservancy, the improvement of production technology and the accumulation of experience, they can have an important impact on the land's population carrying capacity."
"The introduction and promotion of new crop varieties can also have an important impact on the land's population carrying capacity!"
"For example, the new rice variety Zhancheng rice introduced by the Song Dynasty, and the Zhushu, Beijing, and corn I introduced."
"The emergence of these high-yielding grains can further increase grain production."
"With the increase in grain production, there will naturally be more grain that can support a larger population!"
“This is the introduction and promotion of new crop varieties, which leads to an increase in the land’s population carrying capacity.
Yan Changqing wrote [Introduction and promotion of new crop varieties] next to [Production technology improvement and experience accumulation], and finally concluded:
"The reason why I optimistically estimate that the Ming Dynasty will only begin to touch the upper limit of the Ming Dynasty's population carrying capacity after two hundred years is mainly because I think that in the next hundred years."
"In addition to the expansion of territory brought about by the development of the Liaodong Great Plains and the Northern Xinjiang Prairies in the Ming Dynasty, the production tools used by the Ming Dynasty will be further optimized, and more water conservancy facilities and production technologies will be built. and experience will be further improved and accumulated 11.
"And in the future, with the support of the imperial court and the research of agricultural students from the Agricultural College, more new and high-yielding food crops will appear."
"Under the combined influence of these factors, the upper limit and limit of the population carrying capacity of Daming's land will be further raised."
"So if we are optimistic about it, it will take about two hundred years for the Ming Dynasty to reach the upper limit of the population carrying capacity of the Ming Dynasty."
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